Risto E. J. Penttilä, a well-known expert on geopolitics, was the opening speaker at Gofore’s Intelligent Industry 25 event, where he shared his views on Finland’s prospects and those of export companies amid geopolitical turbulence. Penttilä leads the European Business Leaders’ Convention, a network of European companies.
According to Penttilä, a new global order is now taking shape, where Trump’s United States, China, Russia, India, and Saudi Arabia “agree on everything” among themselves, and the rest of the world adapts accordingly. Penttilä’s contacts within the Trump administration say Trump’s top priority is a deal with China—almost at any cost.
“Trump wants a major deal with China. President Xi, in turn, wants the United States to declare that it opposes Taiwan’s independence. A compromise is being negotiated across four meetings over the next 12 months: first APEC, then G20, followed by a bilateral meeting in China, and finally a bilateral meeting in Washington,” Penttilä explains.
No end in sight for tariffs
Penttilä believes the tariffs affecting Finnish industrial companies are designed to make Americans consume less and produce more.
“The goal for tariff revenue is up to $500 billion annually, and since it’s vital for the U.S. economy, tariffs will likely remain in some form. Even if the Supreme Court declares them illegal, a way to continue them will probably be found,” he notes.
“From the MAGA perspective, the revolution in America is proceeding exactly as it should. As long as inflation stays below 3% and the U.S. economy doesn’t experience two consecutive quarters of negative growth, Trump’s economic policy won’t change.”
In domestic Republican politics, religion is emphasized. The party believes it can win the next major elections by mobilizing the religious right.
Finland has a foreign policy anchor
What about Europe and Finland? According to Mario Draghi, Europe is now “in the audience” on all matters. Penttilä disagrees when it comes to Finland.
“Whenever there’s been a major international shift, Finland has cleverly found a foreign policy anchor and turned it into an economic opportunity. Only twice has it failed: during our year of independence and the 2008 financial crisis,” Penttilä says.
He believes Finland should have joined NATO right after the financial crisis, when Europe became fragmented. Currently, Penttilä sees it as crucial for both Europe and Finland that Germany’s economy begins to recover—and there are promising signs.
“For Finland, the most important thing now is that we have NATO and an anchor in Washington. We’re being listened to there, and that’s a solid foundation to build on. Although, of course, foreign policy doesn’t feed anyone,” Penttilä adds.
What should the Finnish industry players do?
Penttilä says the key is technological competitiveness: industrial companies must adopt new technologies as quickly as possible. The state should take inspiration from the 1990s, when a major tax reform was implemented. That reform helped propel Finland into a period of strong growth.
What are the key elements of industrial competitiveness in the coming decade?
Industrial companies face pressure and increasing demands from customers, competitors, owners, and society. Staying competitive in a rapidly changing environment demands identifying barriers, and having the courage to tackle them.Gofore conducted a study to discover more about the key barriers of competitiveness in the coming decade by interviewing leaders of 30 industrial companies. Read the Executive Summary of the key findings.